* India's 5-yr swap rate falls 7 bps to 8.26 pct
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Tuesday, 30 July 2013
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Monday, 29 July 2013
usd/gold
-It is a busy week ahead in terms of US data and events. The July employment report (Friday) will be critical for the prospects of the USD, and we look for the headline NFP of 175K (consensus: 184K) and for the unemployment rate to edge lower to 7.5% (consensus: 7.5%).
-As for the FOMC rate decision (Wednesday), we do not expect major change to the statement while acknowledging improvement in labor market conditions and softness in other cyclical activity data.
-Other key data to watch include consumer confidence (Tuesday, BC:83.0, consensus: 81.0), Q2 GDP (Wednesday, BC: 0.5%, consensus: 1.0%) and ISM manufacturing (Thursday, BC: 52.0, consensus: 52.0).
-Overall our forecasts suggest downside risks to the USD. Note that there will be benchmark revision to GDP and BEA will change the way it calculates GDP.
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rbi news
-In Asia, the key events are the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision (Tuesday) and the official China PMI (Wednesday). We and the consensus expect the RBI to leave policy unchanged. Expectations of interest rate cuts have receded in recent weeks on imported inflation concerns, following the sharp sell-off in the INR.
-High nominal interest rates have been a key factor in holding back domestic demand in India in recent quarters. With relatively elevated inflation likely to inhibit the ability of the central to cut interest rates to boost economic growth in the near term, these conditions may accelerate recent portfolio outflows and limit rupee appreciation.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance this week is scheduled from Belgium,...
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance this week is scheduled from Belgium, Germany, Italy and Spain -- total supply is estimated at E12.55bln compared to E4.79bln sold last week. Belgium kicks off issuance on Monday, which includes taps of the 1.25% June 2018 OLO69, 3.00% Sep 2019 OLO67, 2.25% June 2023 OLO68 and 4.25% Mar 2041 OLO60 for between E2.2bln-E3.2bln indicative size. On Tuesday, Italy taps its 5-year benchmark 3.50% June 2018 BTP for between E1.0bln to E2.0bln and also sells a new 10-year benchmark 4.50% Mar 2024 BTP for between E3.0bln-E3.75bln indicative size. On Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 30-year benchmark 2.50% July 2044 Bund for E2.0bln. On Thursday, Spain benchmark 3-year 3.30% July 2016 Bono , 5-year 3.75% Oct 2018 Bono -- size details are published on Monday and expected to be for up to E3.0bln. France has cancelled its long-term OAT auctions on Thursday. In terms of reinvestment flows, redemptions are scheduled from Spain E14.95bln, Italy E24.7bln and coupon payments from the Italy E7.4bln, Spain E7.4bln - leaves net cash flow positive to the tune of E42.0bln vs E15.2bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
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