-It is a busy week ahead in terms of US data and events. The July employment report (Friday) will be critical for the prospects of the USD, and we look for the headline NFP of 175K (consensus: 184K) and for the unemployment rate to edge lower to 7.5% (consensus: 7.5%).
-As for the FOMC rate decision (Wednesday), we do not expect major change to the statement while acknowledging improvement in labor market conditions and softness in other cyclical activity data.
-Other key data to watch include consumer confidence (Tuesday, BC:83.0, consensus: 81.0), Q2 GDP (Wednesday, BC: 0.5%, consensus: 1.0%) and ISM manufacturing (Thursday, BC: 52.0, consensus: 52.0).
-Overall our forecasts suggest downside risks to the USD. Note that there will be benchmark revision to GDP and BEA will change the way it calculates GDP.
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