mcx tips,nsetips,ncdextips: 2013-07-21

Saturday 27 July 2013

natural gas updates

support 209/208/0203 resistance221/225/228

S STOCKS CLOSE: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 3.22 pts or 0.01% at..

US STOCKS CLOSE: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 3.22 pts or 0.01% at  15,558.83, the Nasdaq Composite closed up 7.98 at 3613.16 or 0.22%, and the S&P500 closed up 1.40 pts or 0.08% at 1690.25. A strong showing in the latter half  of the session saw the indices recover all the lost ground from overnight and  early US dealings , with the Dow recovering over 150 points , although volumes  were noted to be on the weak side

bank nifty updates

sell bank nifty@10900-11000 target 10600/10450/10200

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stock market updates

Key domestic indices declined last week as investors sold shares after the RBI took additional steps to tighten liquidity to shore up the rupee. Earlier in the week, on 23 July 2013, to support the continuous fall in rupee, the central bank tightened liquidity further and made it even harder for lenders to access funds with measures including lowering the amount banks can borrow or lend under its daily liquidity window.

Though the measures helped the rupee rose to a five-week high of 58.69 on Friday (moving further from its record low of 61.21 hit earlier this month), but investors were again set to demand the government pay them handsomely to buy its bonds at an auction. A bond maturing in December 2020 was sold at a cut-off yield of 8.67 per cent, far higher than the 8.12 per cent coupon on the bond.

Post market, we had the Wipro BSE 1.74 % results. The company reported an 11 per cent y-o-y (3 per cent q-o-q) growth in the first quarter net profit from its continuing operations (IT business) at Rs 1,623 crore, and signalled that things were looking up going ahead.

The management said wage hikes effective June impacted its operating margins in Q1. However it is confident of the year ahead and said it is seeing higher confidence among clients and a pickup in large deal closures.

After a choppy week the index ended in the red. The Sensex ended at 19,748.20, losing 401.66 points, while Nifty ended at 5,886.20, losing 143 points, for the week.

On a short term chart of Sensex and Nifty, a rising or bear wedge formation is visible. The index had broken on the downside and fell sharply by more than 3 per cent. On a weekly chart of Sensex and Nifty, a diamond formation is visible with supports at 5,680 and 18,800 respectively on the longer view.

For the week, we expect the market to remain weak and one can look to keep 'sell on rise' strategies. The indicators on the short-term charts have turned negative supporting the bear formation.

Investors will also keenly watch the next set of Q1 June 2013 results and outcome of the RBI's monetary policy review on Tuesday. Although investors do not expect any hike ininterest rates or the cash reserve ratio, they will closely scrutinise its statement for clues about future action.

Other global factors like the outcomes of key policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve, theEuropean Central Bank and the Bank of England will also determine the near-term trend on the domestic bourses.

EURO-DOLLAR: Euro-yen sales force the euro lower back to mid range for the day...

EURO-DOLLAR: Euro-yen sales force the euro lower back to mid range for the day

with immediate support seen at $1.3260 ahead of stronger demand at $1.3250. The  dollar index so far has managed to hold above the 200 dma at 81.50 , but a break  below here could lead to more general pressurte on the dollar, and a test of the  upside sell orders into $1.3300. Current rate $1.3278

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US TSYS: Treasuries still continue in the narrow higher price range, as market...

US TSYS: Treasuries still continue in the narrow higher price range, as market

slumbers into the weekend, with eyes however peeled in case of a potential  German sovereign ratings downgrade, but so far no such downgrade came out.  Traders expected that macro funds still needed to cover shorts. US 10-year note  is at 2.564%, 2-year is at 0.313%. Traders noted copper prices are being hurt  with the copper price off 2.65% on the day and natural gas, coffee, silver and  aluminum and crude oil also weaker. "Copper has rolled over," toward the  downside, said one trader. US stocks indexes are mildly lower

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bullion updates

MUMBAI: Gold prices rebounded at the domestic bullion market today due to renewed buying by stockists and traders, coupled with some low level local buying interest.

Silver also recovered moderately on speculative off-take. Standard gold of 99.5 per cent purity rose Rs 190 to close at Rs 27,695 per 10 gm from Thursday's closing level of Rs 27,505.

Pure gold of 99.9 per cent purity also gained Rs 185 to finish at Rs 27,830 per 10 gm from Rs 27,645.

Silver ready (.999 fineness) moved up Rs 70 to conclude at Rs 41,590 per kg as against Rs 41,520 previously.

"Stockist are buying yellow metal ahead of festivals. Besides, short supplies due to government curbs are aiding the rise," a dealer said.

Gold eased in the overseas market though it was capped by slight slippage of dollar against major basket currencies ahead of Federal Reserve Policy meet next week.

In London, spot gold was bid down at USD 1,329.46 an ounce in early trade while silver was bid lower at USD 20.05 per ounce.

India's seizure of smuggled gold soars 365% in first quarter

NEW DELHI: Seizure of smuggled gold in India soared 365% in the first quarter of the year, a report said on Saturday, following curbs on imports of the precious metal to plug a yawning trade gap.

India, the world's largest buyer of gold, has twice hiked import taxes on bullion this year to discourage gold-buying and introduced other restrictions on purchases to rein in a record current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade.

In the April to June quarter of this financial year seizure of smuggled gold rose 365% over the same period last year, the Business Standard newspaper quoted a government revenue department official as saying.

gold updtaes

Gold prices fell on Friday after investors sold the commodity for profits stemming from Thursday's rally based on soft jobless claims.

The precious metal also fell amid ongoing uncertainty as to when the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its monthly USD85 billion bond-buying program, which has sent gold rising by keeping the dollar weak.

Gold and the dollar tend to trade inversely with one another.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August traded at USD1,319.75 during U.S. afternoon hours, down 0.68%.

The August contract settled up 0.70% at USD1,328.80 a troy ounce on Thursday.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,308.75 a troy ounce, Thursday's low, and resistance at USD1,347.85, Tuesday's high.

Gold rose on Thursday after the Labor Department reported that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week increased by 7,000 to 343,000 compared with expectations for a gain of 4,000 to 340,000.

The numbers weakened the dollar by keeping expectations alive the Federal Reserve will continue stimulating the economy, which was bullish for the yellow metal.

By Friday, profit takers sent prices falling as investors began preparing for next week, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its July jobs report, which could provide markets with more indication as to when monetary stimulus programs may end.

Elsewhere, gold edged lower as a widely watched consumer sentiment gauge beat expectations and rekindled sentiments that the economy is improving and in less need of Fed support.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose more than expected in July, hitting 85.1from 83.9 in June.

Analysts had expected the index to rise to 84.0 this month.

The report also said that inflation expectations fell to 3.1% this month, from 3.3% in June.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for September delivery was down 2.10% at USD19.730 a troy ounce, while copper for September delivery was down 2.53% and trading at USD3.105 a pound

Friday 26 July 2013

buy crude oil hold for target 6290/6320

Crude edges lower on global growth concerns, U.S. data support

U.S. crude oil prices moved lower on Friday amid lingering concerns that the Chinese and U.S. economies continue to battle headwinds, though better-than-expected consumer sentiment in the U.S. data curbed losses.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in September traded at USD104.50 a barrel during U.S. morning trade, down 0.97%.

The September contract settled up 0.09%, at USD105.49 a barrel on Thursday.

Earlier this week, a preliminary reading of China's HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7 in July from a final reading of 48.2 last month. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 48.6. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction, which continued to dampen spirits on Friday, as China is the world's second-largest consumer of oil.

Meanwhile in the U.S., the Labor Department said Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week increased by 7,000 to 343,000 compared with expectations for a gain of 4,000 to 340,000, which dampened spirits somewhat though more upbeat consumer sentiment data provided some support.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose more than expected in July, hitting 85.1 from 83.9 in June.

Analysts had expected the index to rise to 84.0 this month.

The report also said that inflation expectations fell to 3.1% this month, from 3.3% in June.

The U.S. is the world's largest consumer of crude.

On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for September delivery were down 0.56% at USD107.05 a barrel, up USD2.55 from its U.S. counterpart.

gold updates

gold and silver will very high movement traders are take care u r self

gold movement will be 1200 points,silver will be 3000points

gold up dtaes

The dollar held at a five-week low and gold headed for its best month in over 1-1/2 years on Friday, after a report that the U.S. Federal Reserve will next week underline its intention to keep interest rates low for a long time.

Setting the dollar on its slippery slope was a Wall Street Journal report that the Fed may debate tweaking its forward guidance message to hammer home its message that it will not be raising rates any time soon.

Against a basket of currencies the greenback was down 0.3 percent at 81.697 with the softness also adding to the upward pressure on the euro, which was at a five-week high following better economic data this week.

A flurry of merger activity helped lift Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 share index 0.2 percent as the region's markets opened, while Europe's debt markets saw a largely quiet start to the day.

A 3 percent drop in Tokyo's Nikkei in Asia, however, left world stocks flat overall, capping a slow end to what has otherwise been their strongest month in almost two years.

With both the Fed and the European Central Bank meeting next week, plus some significant political events in Europe, BNP Paribas economist Ken Wattret said investors were likely to remain cautious.

"You look at the equity markets and the data in the U.S. and Europe has been good yet we are flat, so that probably tells you that we have had a good run and there is a bit of a pause going on," he said.

"And next week we have a lot going on so the market is in a bit of a wait-and-see mode."

Talk of the Fed reiterating its supportive stance next week also buoyed gold, seen by investors as a good hedge against potential inflation.

Spot gold edged up to $1,334.6 an ounce to add to the 10 jump it has seen this month, is its best run since January 2012.

crude oil tips

sell crude oil@6215 target 6180/6150/6130

effective for base metals

Quotes from Standard Chartered:

-President Xi's speech in Wuhan on 24 July signalled a reform orientation - he spoke of the need to dissolve entrenched interest groups (a possible reference to state-owned enterprises).

-This comes in the lead-up to the summer meetings at Beidaihe, where senior Party leaders attempt to reach consensus, followed by the all-important Third Plenum meeting in September/October, when a high-level economic reform blueprint will be released. Beijing's leadership is therefore still signalling a strong pro-reformist agenda to the Party.

-We expect China's economic policy to become more supportive of growth in Q3, as economic expansion has likely slowed towards the lower limit of the authorities' threshold. In a statement released by the State Council on 16 July, Premier Li explained how policy might be adjusted.

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:...

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:

- Jul 26 ECB Draghi 1-year anniversary of Bumblebee speach  - Jul 26 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week  - Jul 26 Italy CTZ auction (linker cancelled)  - Jul 26 Central Bank of Ireland publishes Q3 Quarterly Bulletin  - Jul 29 Italy sells 6-month T-bill for E8.5bln  - Jul 29 Italy ISTAT business survey  - Jul 30 Spain Q2 GDP data  - Jul 30 EMU July business climate/economic indicator   - Jul 30 Italy taps 5-year BTP, new 10-year BTP for up to E6.75bln  - Jul 30 Spain bond redemption for E14.95bln  - Jul 31 Eurozone flash HICP data  - Jul 31 Eurozone June unemployment data/Q2 unemployment data  - Jul 31 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.775bln  - Aug 01 Italy bond redemption for E25.16bln  - Aug 01 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference in Frankfurt

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gold levels

support:27350/27200/27020

resistance:27550/27700/27850

nsetips

itc futers profit @17000 still running

nse tips

coal India call given for 25000 profit

bank nifty levels

bank nifty support:10730/10630/10574

bank nifty resistance:10780/10880/10950

nifty levels

support:5946/5920/5900

resistance:5970/5994/6000

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rbi updates

India removes trading band for govt bonds for Friday-fixed income association

Thursday 25 July 2013

gold tips

sell gold@27200 target 27100/27000/26800

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copper tips

copper almost 1st target achieved@413.40

coper tips

sell copper @416.502nd lot 420 target 413/408

news updte

Economists: while the manufacturing rebound bodes well for U.S. growth in the 3q13, it is unlikely to persuade the FED to hasten the end of its massive stimulus program

nse tips

itc maid fresh low @360 after our sell call

rbi updates

* India Central bank may sell 28-day cash management bills at 11.28 pct, 56-day bills at 11.38 pct - poll

nse tips

sell itc@370 target 350/345

goldlevels

support:27160/26980/26770

resistance:27330/27450/27560

RBI updates

* India Central bank says banks' cash balances 2.94 trln Rupees on July 20

nse tips

positional sell lupin @873 target 840/820/750

bank nifty tips

bank nifty buy above@10730 target 10850/10950

Wednesday 24 July 2013

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: JPM says latest core econ data reported for construction,...

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: JPM says latest core econ data reported for construction,

cap goods, retail sales, trade, and inventories could "be modestly favorable for  GDP growth on net" from 2010 on, "led by a decent-sized upward revision to 1Q13  and mixed results across the other quarters." GDP revisions are due Jul 31 and  could initially confuse, JPM says.

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gold updates

Spot Gold down 2 pct to below $1,320/oz as Crude oil drops, Dollar adds gain

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gold tips

gold maid fresh low @27260 can book profit

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US DATA: July Markit PMI (flash) 53.2 vs 51.9f June, and text confirms it's a...

US DATA: July Markit PMI (flash) 53.2 vs 51.9f June, and text confirms it's a  high since March. Text says there was solid gain in orders and employment  gained. One caveat is that response rate was only 85% of normal.

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gold tips

gold 2nd target achieved@27450

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rmseed up dates

Madhya Pradesh: Mustard Trading Lower in Physical MarketAt Bhind market in Madhya Pradesh, Mustard Seed is trading weak at 3000-3050 per quintal, lower by 3.17 per cent from previous dayn#39;s price level. Total arrivals are at 500 quintals, lower by 500 quintals from previous dayn#39;s arrivals. Mustard Oil is offered lower at 0 6400 per quintal, down by 1.54 per cent from previous price level. Mustard seed at Dabra market is quoted at 0 3000-3100 per quintal, steady as against previous close. Total market arrivals are at 100 quintals, unchanged as compared to previous dayn#39;s arrival. Mustard Non-Condition at Morena market is trading lower at 0 3000 per quintal, down by 4.76 per cent as against previous day. Total arrivals are at 500 quintals, up by 100 quintals as against previous day. Mustard Condition at Morena market is quoted weak at 0 3150 per quintal, lower by 3.73 per cent as compared to previous day. Mustard in Madhya Pradesh Market (Prices in per quintal) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Bhind Mustard Seed 3000-3050 -100 Bhind Mustard Oil 6400 -100 Dabra Mustard seed 3000-3100 0 nnbsp; nnbsp; nnbsp; nnbsp; Morena Mustard Non-Condition 3000 -150 Morena Mustard Condition 3150 -122 nnbsp;
  
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lead tips

sell lead @122 target 121.30/120.80

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rbi updates

RBI could also resort to an outright hike in the policy rate

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mcx tips,ncdextips,crudeoil tips natural gas tips,stockmarkettips,goldlevels,silvers for evrey service

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Goldman says a better budget means smaller UST financing...

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Goldman says a better budget means smaller UST financing.  "While there is a very high likelihood that auction sizes will be reduced in  coming quarters, we think it is a close call whether anything will be announced  in the immediate term. Ultimately, we think near-term cuts are slightly more  likely than not. Any reduction is likely to be concentrated in 2- and 3-year  auction sizes."

Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:

-Under the Chinese hard landing scenario, we would expect China to lead the easing cycle. The PBOC would both slash the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) and conduct sizeable repo operations to ensure ample liquidity, which would lead to lower money market fixings. We conservatively estimate that the RRR would be cut by 4.5 percentage points from 20% to the post-Lehman low of 15.5%, which would in turn push front-end rates below 1.00%.

-Elsewhere in the region, we expect rates to fall towards the levels seen in 2008. The inflationary impact of cuts in domestic subsidies and tariff hikes in electricity and fuel would be overshadowed by the deflationary pressure from a sharp economic slowdown. India, Malaysia and Thailand would have the most scope to ease from current levels, while Taiwan and Indonesia have the least room to manoeuvre.

gold tips

gold 1st target achieved@27550

Euro updayes

NetDania: New 1 month High: EUR/USD

bank nifty

target extended to 10560/10450

gold tips

sell gold@276702nd lot 27750 target 26550/26450/26200

India cash rate

* India's overnight cash rate jumps to 10 pct versus Tuesday's close of 6.50/6.55 pct

Tuesday 23 July 2013

Gold silver updates

Gold, spot
New 1 month High: 1339.78
Previous 1 month High: 1339.76

crude oil tip

sell crude oil @6400 2nd lot @6440 target 6340/6280

(Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India took further steps on Tuesday to tighten banking system liquidity and support the falling rupee, aggressively shrinking its daily borrowing window and ordering banks to set aside high cash reserves on a daily basis.

Just after a week of taking exceptional measures to stem the currency's decline, the RBI made liquidity tighter and costlier for banks, which in turn is expected to increase demand for rupees and reduce volatility.

The RBI lowered the overall limit for borrowing under the daily liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) - which offers funds in exchange for collateral - for each bank to 0.5 percent of deposits from 1 percent.

The RBI also said banks needed to maintain 99 percent of their daily cash reserve ratio requirements - the deposits they must set aside - with the RBI, as against 70 percent now.

"These measures of trying to reduce domestic liquidity and making funding costs higher, may not be very effective to support the rupee," said Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist at Barclays.

"There is a risk that capital inflows in the equity market can get dented as these steps put more pressure on growth in the medium term," Sanyal said.

The LAF adjustment is based on deposits outstanding as of the last Friday of the reporting cycle two weeks prior to the current one. The reserve requirement change takes effect from the two-weekly period starting July 27.

UNDER PRESSURE

The rupee had steadied somewhat since the RBI took unprecedented steps last week to try to create demand for the currency by aggressively draining cash from money markets and sharply raising short-term interest rates. Some of the rupee's fall - 12 percent since May and including a record low of 61.21 to the dollar on July 8 - reflects a broader selloff in emerging markets on signs the United States is preparing to wind down its economic stimulus.

However, a record high current account deficit, concerns over a decade-low growth and now uncertainty over the central bank's monetary policy stance, which had been on a easing path until May, have prompted foreign investors to remain persistent sellers of Indian debt since late May of $11.5 billion.

The RBI also announced sale of 60 billion rupees of short end cash management bills to drain out more cash from the banking system.

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