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Saturday 1 August 2015

Base Metal/weekly: Copper may fall on demand worries, strong dollar

Copper may extend fall for a seventh-straight trading week on global demand concerns and on expectation of strong dollar index in next week following Fed rate hike fear, said analysts.
  "Base metals will fall on global demand worries and expectation of strong dollar," said Kaynat Chianwala an analyst with Angel Commodities.
  Prices of the industrial metals will be down on demand concerns from Euro-zone, the world's third biggest metal consumer, following weaker than expected economic data of Germany, the biggest metal consumer in Euro-zone, said analysts.
  Germany retail sales in month of June slipped 2.3% compared to analysts' expectation of 0.3% and 0.4% growth a month ago while Germany consumer prices index in month of July eased 0.2% compared to consensus expectation of 0.3% and 0.3% in the same period a year ago, government data showed.
  Industrial metals will also be under pressure on subdued demand from US, the second biggest metal consumer, after pending home sales in month of June fell unexpectedly, said analysts.
  US pending home sales in month of June dropped 1.8% compared to analysts' expectation of 1% growth and 0.6% a month ago, government showed on Wednesday.
  "Market continues to remain under pressure amid demand worries from top consumer China and gains in US dollar," said Priyanka Jhaveri an analyst with Kotak Commodities.
  Growing expectation of rate hike by US is lifting US Dollar higher, said analysts.
  Next week, dollar index, which measures the strength of greenback against its six major trading partners, expected to stay in the range of 98-98.5.
  Upbeat jobs data triggered fear that the Federal Reserve will be in course of raising interest rate in September.
  United States jobless claims came at 267,000 for the week ended Jul 24 compared to analysts' estimate of 270,000 and 255,000 a week ago, a government data showed.
  While, US gross domestic product annualized at 2.3% in second quarter compared to upward revision of 0.6% a quarter ago, a government data showed.
  On Thursday, the Federal Reserve reiterated its resolve to hike rates later this year as the economy was poised for expansion and labour market was expected to improve further.
   The central bank said it was seeing "solid" job gains and maintained its view that economic activity was expanding "moderately", with the risks to the outlook "nearly balanced".
  "Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. The labour market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment," FOMC statement said.
  The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labour market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2% objective over the medium term.
  Prices of base metals will also be under pressure after a private survey showed manufacturing activity contracted by the most in 15 months in July indicating weakening economic condition in Asia's biggest economy.
  The flash Caixin/Markit China manufacturing PMI came at 48.2, lowest reading since Apr 2014 compared to analysts' estimate of 49.7 and 49.4 a month ago.
  It is the fifth straight month reading below 50. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.
  China is the world's largest consumer of copper accounting for about 40% of total global demand and major consumer of other industrial metals
  Copper for August delivery traded in Rs 334.15-343.95 per kilograms range this week and are likely to find support at Rs 326-331 per kilograms next week. The metal prices may find resistance at Rs 350-360per kilograms next week, said Mihir Kansara a technical analyst with Phillip Commodities.
  For the past five trading sessions aluminium for August delivery traded in Rs 103.85-106.20 range on the Multi Commodity Exchange.
  Resistance for August aluminium prices is seen at Rs 107-110 per kilograms level and price may get support at Rs 102-99.50 per kilograms level in next week, said Kansara.
  Nickel for August delivery traded in Rs 705.10-732.30 per kilogram range in last week on the MCX.
  Resistance for August nickel prices is seen at Rs 735-770 per kilograms level and price may get support at Rs 680-655 per kilograms level in next week, said Kansara.
  Lead for August delivery traded in Rs 109.35-111.90 per kilogram range in last week on the MCX.
  Resistance for August lead prices is seen at Rs 112-115 per kilograms level and price may get support at Rs 108-105.50 per kilograms level in next week. Kansara said.
  In the past five trading sessions on the MCX, zinc for August delivery traded between Rs 124-127.80 per kilogram range.
   Resistance for August zinc prices is seen at Rs 128-132 per kilograms level and price may get support at Rs 122-119 per kilograms level in next week

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