Edible oil/weekly:Soybean may rise on higher demand, global supply worries
MUMBAI, FEB 14: Soybean may trade rise next week on higher United States soybean export number and on weak supply of the crop from United States and Brazil, indicating tight supply situation, said analysts.
"Soybean will rise on higher demand for the crop in international market and on supply worries from US and Brazil," said Ankita Parekh an analyst with Nirmal Bang.
Prices of the bean will be supported on improved demand from oil crusher in domestic market and in US market, said analysts.
Soybean prices will be supported on USDA said private shippers sold 745,400 tons of soybeans for the 2014-2015 season, beating analysts' expectations and coming in 52% higher than the previous week and 29% higher than the prior four-week average.
In domestic market, demand for the bean is also expected to rise from oil crusher on speculation that government may rise imports duty on edible oil after industry sought further increment in import duty on crude and refined oil to safeguard the interest of oilseed farmers by ensuring remunerative prices following higher imports, said Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) of India in press release.
"As a remedy to the current situation, we would once again like to strongly appeal to the Union Government to immediately increase import duty on crude vegetable prices," said B V Mehta Executive Director SEA of India.
The industry is demanding the government to raise import duty on crude vegetable oils to 10% from 7.5% and on refined oil to 25% from 15% to support the inertest of the farmer.
Prices of the bean will also be supported USDA decreased 2014-15 United States soybean production forecast indicating tight supply in the world's biggest bean producer.
The USDA trimmed US, the world's biggest bean grower, 2014-15 production estimates to 108 million tons unchanged from the previous estimates and 91.4 million tons a year ago.
USDA also decreased forecast for 2014-15 US soybean ending stockpiles to 385 million bushels compared to 410 million bushels in the previous month and 92 million bushels a year ago.
Brazil, the world's second biggest soybean producer, 2014-15 output may fall to 94.5 million tons compared to 95.5 million tons a month ago and 86.7 million tons a year ago, the USDA said.
Soybean for April delivery traded in Rs 3,430-3,315 per 100 kilogram range in the past five trading sessions. Soybean for April delivery is expected to trade in Rs 3,350-3,560 per 100 kilograms on the National Commodity & Derivative Exchange next week.
Crude palm oil may trade flat next week on fear of lower supply from Indonesia and Malaysia and on weak demand, said analysts.
CPO prices will be supported on a report that the government of Indonesian, the world's biggest oil producer, is in process of increasing the bio diesel subsidy by three fold.
Earlier the subsidy was Rupiah 1,500 for one litre and now it is proposed to be Rupiah 4,000 per litre. The move needs to be passed by the budget committee in parliament, the directorate general for oil and gas at the Energy & Mineral Resources Ministry said.
Prices of the CPO will also be up after Malaysia's crude palm oil output fell in January due to floods, and its stockpiles of the commodity hit a six-month low at the end of January.
Palm oil output fell 15% to 1.16 million tons as on January end compared to 1.36 million tons a month earlier.
Palm oil stockpiles also dropped 12.2% to 1.77 million tons as on January end compared to 2.01 million tons a month ago, data showed.
Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm oil producer, is facing widespread flooding due to a severe monsoon in December and January.
Meanwhile, after five months of zero duty on crude palm oil (CPO) exports, Malaysian government has finally decided to reintroduce duty next month. Earlier
decision was necessitated by poor exports from the country.
However, sharp gain in the CPO prices will be capped by oversupply of the oil in domestic market following robust imports data, said analysts.
India Crude palm oil imports rose 72.09% to 580,695 tons in January compared to 337,418 tons in the same period a month ago, data release from the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India showed.
Prices of the CPO will also be under pressure on subdued demand following weak Malaysia palm oil export data, said analysts.
Malaysia palm oil exports in Feb 1-10 fell 16% from a month earlier on weak demand from China, India, and Middle East while output of the edible oil fell 15% in January end due to floods, DowJones reported.
Malaysia palm oil exports dropped to 298,910 tons in Feb 1-10 compared to 355,846 tons for the same period a month ago, Dow Jones reported citing data from Intertek a private surveyor showed today.
CPO for February delivery in the past five sessions traded in Rs 463.90-447.10 per 10 kilogram and may trade in Rs 450-459 per 10 kilograms range on the MCX in next week.
Soyoil may rise next week on improvement in demand and on speculation that government may hike imports duty on edible oil, said analysts.
The industry is demanding the government to raise import duty on crude vegetable oils to 10% from 7.5% and on refined oil to 25% from 15% to support the inertest of the farmer.
Soyoil traded in Rs 603.50-586.05 per 10 kilogram range in the past five trading sessions. Soyoil for April delivery is expected to trade in Rs 590-610 per 10 kilograms rang next week on the National Commodity & Derivative Exchange (NCDEX).
Prices of the mustard seed, the main rabi crop, will extend gain next week on supply worries following weak sowing data, said analysts.
India's rabi crop sowing contracted to 61.57 million hectare until Feb 13 from 65.68 million hectare a year showing a decline of 6%, agriculture ministry data showed.
Oilseeds acreage was down at 8.1 million hectare as against 9.02 million hectare as farmers planted less mustard seed due to moisture stress in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, two major mustard producing states.
RM seed for April traded in Rs 3,354-3,252 per 100 kilogram range for past five trading session. RM seed for April delivery may trade in Rs 3,270-3,380 per kilogram range next week, analysts said.
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