UPDATE OF INVESTMENT

DOWN LAOD

Pulses Down 4.3%, Chana and Tur each Down by 16%

2nd Advance Estimates of Production of Pulses for 2014-15, Total Pulses Down 4.3%, Chana and Tur each Down by 16%

In 2014-15, the Production of pulses estimated at 18.43 million tonnes is lower by 4.36% from 19.5 million tonnes produced in 2013-14. nnbsp; India is likely to harvest 16% lower chana in 2014-15 from last year on lower planted area (down 16% Y-O-Y). nnbsp; Meanwhile, the decline in tur production due to erratic rainfall conditions during the monsoon season-2014. nnbsp; The 2nd Advance Estimates of production of major crops for 2014-15 and Final Estimates for 2013-14 have been released by the Department of Agriculture namp; Cooperation on 18th February, 2015. nnbsp; As per 2nd Advance Estimates, the production of major pulses during 2014-15 are as under: nnbsp; nnbsp;

RMSeed

Rise in domestic demand for Mustard Oil ahead of the Festive season along with firmness in other Oil complex kept trend Bullish for RMSeed. Prospects of improved productivity had kept short term trend down. But with rates at very low levels, traders expect some recovery in the near term as demand picks up.

 Latest WASDE reports indicate India rapeseed production projected at 6.9 million tons, down 650 thousand tons on lower area

 Demand rose for Mustard Oil amidst falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool weather in growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments. 

As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 24 December was 26.40 lakh ha vs 29.73 lakh ha in 2013-14. The government has set a target of 29 lakh for this year. The fall in area was due to high temperature in Oct and lack of rains. Farmer are reportedly shifting to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due to the high Temperature.

 Haryana area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was reportedly 5.25 lakh ha while it was 5.47 lakh ha in 2013-14 during this time. The reason is again the high temperature during Oct. MP area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was 6.46 lakh ha while it was 7.87 in 2013-14. Due to good rains in Oct and fields being unused, early sowing was possible there. UP area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was 11.42 lakh ha while it was 10.37 lakh ha in 2013-14 during this period. As fields this year were unused in kharif season, so farmers had sown Mustard early in UP. 

Mustard area coverage in All over India is 63.79 lakh Ha during Rabi 2014-15 and 67.00 lakh ha in 2013- 14, area coverage during Rabi 2014 -15 is lower.

As per latest reports from Oil World, the output of mustard in Europe is expected to decline near 15% to 205 lakh tons, the lowest level in past 30 years, while it was 240 lakh tons last year. There is outbreak of insects on the mustard cops in Europe, as per the Oil World report, which may reduce the yield.

Soybean

Soybean traded firm as good domestic demand amidst slight firmness in International markets pulled up prices moderately. Traders expect prices have fallen a lot and some short term recovery not ruled out this week. 

Latest WASDE reports indicate global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 532.1 million tons, down slightly from last month. Global soybean production is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 315.1 million. Prospects for the Argentina soybean crop have improved with ample moisture and mild temperatures. As a result, the crop is projected at a record 56.0 million tons, up 1.0 million. Soybean production is also raised for China, Russia, and Ukraine. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 94.5 million tons, down 1.0 million on lower yields reflecting the impact of limited rainfall in eastern growing areas.  

WASDE Report OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supplies are increased 10 million bushels to 4,086 million on higher projected imports. Exports for 2014/15 are projected at 1,790 million bushels, up 20 million. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1,795 million on increased domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean oil production gains from additional crush are mostly offset with a lower extraction rate. With increased production and reduced exports, soybean oil ending stocks are projected at 1.505 billion pounds, up 75 million. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 385 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.

 As per IGC, soybean output may rise by 40 lakh tons this year. It has estimated 31.20 crore tons output globally in 2014-15. Previously, the IGC had estimated 30.8 crore tons in its projection released in November.  IGC has estimated 117 lakh tons of soybeans in India for 2014-15, while it was 120 lakh tons last year. However, some organizations differ the estimate. As per the Soybean Processors Association of India report released in November, soybean output may be around 105 lakh tons, while Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade (COIT) has predicted 91 lakh tons. The COIT has estimated 13 lakh tons less output in Maharashtra as compared to last year. As per COIT, soybean output was 38 lakh tons in the state last year, while it has been recorded only 25 lakh tons as of now.

China, the largest consumer has reportedly scraped orders of soybeans around 1.20 lakh tons during the US marketing seasons started with September 1, showing signs of weak demand. 

Ref Soy Oil up dates

Improved domestic demand kept supporting the prices at these lower levels as a moderately Bullish trend from these levels is not ruled out for Ref Soy Oil in the coming weeks. Festive season domestic demand is expected to provide support to the rates that have fallen a lot over last few weeks.

 As per Rabi Crops data released by Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, as on 13th Feb, sowing area under total oilseeds is at 80.92 lakh hectares as compared to 90.20 lakh hectares last year.

As per SOPA, India's soy meal shipments during January, 2015 was 1.04 lac tons as compared to 3.64 lac tons in January, 2014 showing a decrease by 71.48% over the same period of last year.  On a financial year basis, the export during April'2014 to January'2015 is 5.35 lac tons as compared to 24.25 lac tons in the same period of previous year showing a decrease of 77.92%. During current Oil year, (October – September), total exports during October 2014 to January, 2015 are 4.38 Lac tones as against 15.49 Lac tones last year, showing a decrease by 71.69%. Iran, France and Indonesia remained the top 3 buyers of Indian soy meal in January 2015.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January fell 14.6 percent to 1,109,188 tonnes from 1,298,461 tonnes shipped during December - cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance. India imported 162,900 tons during January v/s 359,767 tons last month.

The recent hike in Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil and refined edible oil would have a medium term Bullish impact on prices—as per sources. Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil hiked from 2.5% to 7.5% and on Refined Edible Oil hiked to 15% from 10%.