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Wednesday, 22 March 2017

Tuesday, 21 March 2017

Forex - Dollar index extends losses, touches 6-week lows

The dollar extended losses against the other major currencies on Tuesday, pressured lower by the view that the Federal Reserve won’t accelerate the pace of monetary tightening. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.49% at 99.67 at 09.19 ET, its weakest since February 6. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said Monday the Fed is on track to raise rates twice more this year, underlining the view that the central bank will stick to a gradual pace of tightening after last week’s rate hike. The dollar was also on the defensive after G20 financial leaders dropped a pledge to keep global trade free and open from a policy statement at the weekend, following opposition from the increasingly protectionist Trump administration. The move renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade relations and by extension the Trump administration’s concerns over the strong dollar. The euro hit six-week highs as concerns over the French presidential elections eased, with EUR/USD advancing 0.59% to 1.0802, its highest level since February 2. Opinion polls showed that Emmanuel Macron consolidated his status as frontrunner in France's presidential election in a televised debate on Monday against his main rival, far-right anti-EU leader Marine Le Pen. Le Pen has pledged to take France out of the euro and hold a referendum on EU membership. Sterling rose to three-week highs, with GBP/USD up 0.75% to 1.2452 after data showing that the annual rate of inflation in the UK rose to the highest since September 2013 in February. The euro was slightly lower against the pound following the inflation report, with EUR/GBP down 0.16% at 0.8674. The dollar was little changed against the yen, with USD/JPY at 112.54 after falling as low as 112.29 overnight, its weakest since February 28. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar hit the day’s highs after stronger-than-expected domestic retail sales data and as prices of oil, a major Canadian export, rose. USD/CAD was down 0.49% at 1.3283, not far from the two-week lows of 1.3275 set on March 16.

Dollar index slips below 100 after Fed speak

The dollar slipped Tuesday as Fed members signaled a slower pace of tightening than the market had been expecting. The dollar index was off 0.22% at 99.94 at 03:30 ET after a high of 100.18. Fed member Charles Evans indicated he would be comfortable with a total of three hikes this year if the U.S. economy remains on track. Fed member Neel Kashkari warned against rushing to raise rates. Kashkari was the sole dissenter in the FOMC's decision last week to raise its target range to 0.75%-1.0%. More Fed members are due to speak later Tuesday. Chair Janet Yellen speaks Thursday. The euro was firm above $1.07 after the French presidential elections debate on Monday. Centrist Emmanuel Macron emerged with his status as the front-runner intact. The pound steadied as Britain set to trigger Article 50 to leave the EU on March 29. U.K. inflation data are due for release later in the session

Forex - Dollar stays on the defensive, euro hits 6-week highs

The dollar remained on the back foot on Tuesday amid the view that the Federal Reserve won’t speed up the pace of monetary tightening, while the euro hit six-week highs as concerns over France’s presidential elections eased. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.27% at 99.89. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said Monday the Fed is on track to raise rates twice more this year, disappointing some investors who had hoped for a faster rate of tightening. The Fed hiked rates last week, and reiterated that the future pace of rate hikes would be gradual. Heading into the meeting, dollar bulls had braced for a potentially more hawkish tone from the central bank. The dollar also came under selling pressure after G20 financial leaders dropped a pledge to keep global trade free and open from a policy statement at the weekend, following opposition from the increasingly protectionist Trump administration. The move renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade relations and by extension the Trump administrations concerns over the strong dollar. The euro hit six-week highs, with EUR/USD advancing 0.5% to 1.0792, its highest level since February 3. The single currency was boosted after opinion polls showed that Emmanuel Macron consolidated his status as frontrunner in France's presidential election in a televised debate against his main rival, far-right anti-EU leader Marine Le Pen. Le Pen has pledged to take France out of the euro and hold a referendum on EU membership. Sterling was also higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.24% to 1.2388 ahead of a UK inflation report expected to show that inflation has returned to its 2% target as Britain braces for Brexit to be triggered on March 29. The dollar pushed higher against the yen, with USD/JPY adding 0.15% to trade at 112.73 after falling as low as 112.29 overnight, its weakest since February 28.

Bullish dollar bets seen fully unwound: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

EW YORK - Bullish bets on the dollar spurred by Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win and his pledge on tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending last November have faded, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) analyst said on Tuesday. "The (dollar) positions accumulated in the build-up and immediate aftermath of the U.S. election look to have been fully unwound," Bank of America Merrill Lynch currency strategist Myria Kyriacou wrote in a note.

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