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REPEAT/CRUDE WEEKLY: May trade flat on oversupply woes, short-covering

 

   Crude futures on Multi-Commodity Exchange are likely to trade flat next week on increasing supplies from global market and as investors may cover short positions at lower level, analysts said.

  "Higher global supplies are likely to pressurise the prices of crude," said Madhavi Mehta, research analyst with Kotak Commodities.

  Global oil supply surged by 550,000 barrels per day in June, on higher output from both Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers, International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

  World oil production jumped by 3.1 million barrels per day to 96.6 million barrels per day, with OPEC crude and natural gas liquids accounting for 60% of the gain. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to grind to a halt in 2016, as lower oil prices and spending cuts take a toll.

  Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes Saudi Arabia and other big Middle East producers, pumped over 32 million barrels per day in July, up 140,000 barrels per day from June, the Reuters data showed.

  Saudi produced more than 10.6 million barrels per day, amounting to its highest level on record, various data showed.

  Crude oil prices may also be under pressure on weak global demand forecast, analysts said.

  Global oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2016, from an average 1.4 million barrels a day this year, International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its oil market report (OMR).

  World oil demand growth appears to have peaked in the first quarter at 1.8 million barrels a day and will continue to ease throughout the rest of 2015 and into 2016 as temporary support fades.

  Weak economic data from US and China, world's biggest consumers, will indicate lower demand, analysts said.

  Manufacturing activity in United States came lower than expected triggering growth concerns in the world's biggest economy.

  US manufacturing PMI came at 52.7 in Jul lower than analysts' at 53.5, a data from Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed.

  Another data showed from Markit showed manufacturing in US remained steady at 53.8 in July.

  Government and a private survey showed manufacturing data in China came lower than forecast triggering growth concerns in the Asia's biggest economy.

  China NBS manufacturing PMI came at 50 in Jul lower than analysts' estimate of 50.2, a government data showed.

  Another data from Caixin/Markit survey showed manufacturing activity in China shrank most in two years.

  Caisin/Markit China manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.8 in July compared to 48.2 month ago.

  "Prices are likely to be supported on short-covering as prices have a fallen lot," Ajay Kumar Kedia, research analyst with Kedia Commodities.

  Domestic crude oil prices fell by more than 28% and traded between the range of Rs 2,826-3,797 per barrel in past six trading sessions on weak demand and increasing supplies from global markets.

  Meanwhile, US oil inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels to 459.6 million barrels for week ended Jul 31 against analysts' expectation for an increase by 1.1 million barrels, data by American Petroleum Institute (API) showed.

  US oil inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels to 463.9 million barrels for week ended Jul 31 against analysts' expectation for an increase by 1.2 million barrels, data by Energy Information Association (EIA) showed.

  West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, for September delivery slumped 5.49% to $44.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange for the week ended Aug 6.

  Brent, European benchmark for September contract plunged 5.79% to $49.19 per barrel, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange for the week ended Aug 6.

  However, any movement in the local currency will also impact crude oil prices, analysts said.

  The local currency rose 0.50% to Rs 63.81/$1 in the week ended Aug 6.

  Crude oil is expected to find support at Rs 2,700 per barrel and resistance at Rs 3,250 per barrel, analysts said.

  Crude for August delivery traded in Rs 2,826-3,035 per barrel range in the past five trading session on the Multi Commodity Exchange

Castor Seed in Gujarat Physical Market

At Rajkot market , Castor Seed Loose price is trading lower at Rs. 3575-3715 per quintal, down by 0.67 per cent from previous trading day. Total arrivals are at 50 per quintal, down by 91 per quintal from previous trading day. Castor Seed Loose price at Gondal market is offered at Rs. 3530-3780 per quintal, steady against previous close. Traders reported arrivals at 100 per quintal, down by 204 per quintal from previous dayn#39;s arrivals. Castor Seed Loose price at Patan market is quoted at Rs. 3800-3850 per quintal, steady as against previous close. Trade sources reported arrivals at 3750 per quintal, lower by 1875 per quintal from previous dayn#39;s arrivals. Castor Seed Loose price at Harij market is offered strong at Rs. 3840-3875 per quintal, up by 1.31 per cent against previous day. Todayn#39;s arrivals are at 1125 per quintal, up by 75 per quintal as compared to previous day. Castor Seed Loose price at Mehsana market is trading high at Rs. 3840-3860 per quintal, higher by 0.65 per cent from previous trading day. Arrivals were reported at 800 per quintal, steady as against previous dayn#39;s arrival. Castor Seed Loose price at Kadi market is quoted at Rs. 3825-3875 per quintal, steady as against previous close. Estimated market supply was at 1600 per quintal, lower by 160 per quintal from previous dayn#39;s arrivals. Castor Seed in Gujarat Market (Prices in Rs. per quintal) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Rajkot Castor Seed Loose price 3575-3715 -25 Gondal Castor Seed Loose price 3530-3780 0 Patan Castor Seed Loose price 3800-3850 0 Harij Castor Seed Loose price 3840-3875 +50 Mehsana Castor Seed Loose price 3840-3860 +25 Kadi Castor Seed Loose price 3825-3875 0 nnbsp;