Turmeric

 Rates short up for Turmeric as falling arrivals of the new crop amidst pick up in Festive season demand from North India and rising exports kept trend firm and supported the prices at these very low levels. Arrival pressure of the new crop had been so far keeping pressure on the prices. But with arrivals slowly coming down, the prices could find some support over next few weeks.

 Short term trend likely to be very volatile but a fall in sowing area and delayed arrival of the new crop due to delayed Monsoon last year keeps overall market sentiments firm. Reports of damage to standing crop in TN, AP and Maharashtra also attributed to the prices getting strong support here. 

 A fall in sowing area in TN and Karnataka due to cyclone in October amidst delayed Monsoon could affect production adversely, as per market sources. Even as area in AP goes up, overall production is expected to come down—lending medium term support to prices

 As harvesting of the new crop picks up in coming weeks., this could prevent prices from shooting up a lot as arrivals rise. However, with demand from North India and Export demand expected to rise in coming weeks, the downtrend can be limited—as per market sources

 The demand is expected to pick up in coming days—lending some support to the prices. Traders anticipate prices are at very low levels and further downtrend may be limited. Last year production was low due to crop damage reports from AP and TN but stock levels from earlier years are high.

As per reports from Spice Board of India, the estimated exports of Turmeric during April-September 2014 was pegged at 43000 MT, up by 10% same period previous year in quantity and 15% in value terms, same period in 2013.  

jeera up dates

Jeera kept hitting Upper Circuit levels as export demand increased in the mandis amidst falling arrivals of the new crop. A firm Dollar vs Re kept uptrend intact. 25-30% fall in sowing area too contributed to the upside movement as traders anticipate medium to long term Bullish trend to continue.

 The rains in growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan last month is expected to improve the crop productivity to some extent. But overall lower sowing area and expected fall in production would however keep long term Bullish sentiments intact as exports rise in mandis. 

As per latest Govt reports, in Gujarat, normal area is approximately 388,000 ha. Till 5.1.2015, only 2.64 lakh ha have sown as compared to 4.54 lakh ha last year. Sowing area during current year likely to go down in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to lower price as compared to Coriander. Area may shift to Coriander and Fenugreek seed. Cumin output is expected to fall steeply in Gujarat this year. Output was 3.46 lakh tons in the state last year but may fall this year as acreage is slashed by 42%. However, yield is expected to improve after the rainfall that the state received recently. Still, there is less probability of the output to cross 2 lakh tons. 

 Latest report from Spice Board of India indicates pickup in exports during April-Sept 2014 period at 87500 tonnes (up from 70243 in April-Sept 2013) – a rise of 25% in Quantity and 2% in value. Targeted Export for 2014-15 period is 1,00,000 tonnes. With Indian produce being of superior quality, they fetch a premium w.r.t. International market. Adverse reports from International producers would be beneficial for the Indian markets in the long term.

 The exports have already shot up 40% during the 1st half of the quarter. It is expected to remain high in coming months too – which could create a Bullish sentiment in the long term for the commodity. Finally a fall in area as reported amidst adverse weather conditions in growing areas could help keep market sentiments firm in the medium term. 

Mentha Oil UPDATES

Mentha Oil traded sideways as no strong report emerged from the mandis. Markets are however likely to remain firm as sowing progresses. Rains at this time would be beneficial for the crop sowing. So that needs to be tracked. Demand from pharmaceutical Industries and rise in exports could support the prices at the lower levels. High stocks are keeping uptrend limited.  

Reports of current prices being on the lower side along with expected pick up in export and winter season domestic demand in coming weeks could ensure prices find some strong support here. 

Higher production and higher stock levels have been keeping sentiments weak for sometime. Domestic pharmaceutical Industries demand are likely to rise in coming weeks

Banning of Gutka in some states continues having negative impact on Mentha Oil demand. Production this year expected higher at more than 60000 tonnes vs ~50000 tonnes last year

Latest reports from Spice Board indicate that for the period AprilDecember last year, exports for Mint value-added products like Oil, Menthol and its crystals rose 94% in volumes at 17,850 tonnes and 39% in value at Rs 2202 Cr w.r.t. same period the previous year.

Chana UPDATES

Trend continued to remain Bullish or Chana as improved domestic demand amidst lower crop expectations kept trend firm for the counter. Traders are not ruling out some more uptrend in coming days as Festive season demand expected to remain high. 

As per Rabi Crops data released by Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, area coverage under total Pulses is at 145.92 lakh ha till Feb 13, while the last year's sowing area coverage was 162.21 lakh ha. Chana has been sown over 85.91 lakh ha, which is less 15% as compared to last year's 102.25 lakh ha. 

However, lower sowing reports and expectations of a pick up in demand at the lower levels are likely to support the prices in coming weeks. Extending Dutyfree import for Pulses till March 31 may prevent strong uptrend. But a fall in Rabi sowing area for Rabi Pulses and lower International production prospects could support prices in medium to long term. 

As per USDA, expected pulses production in US is up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne during 2014 from last year. Reports from Canada indicate chickpea production there expected to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014-15—down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower yield. Reports from Australia indicate a 22.5% fall in Pulses production and more than 30% fall in Chick Peas production in 2014- 15 vs that in 2013-14. 

Report from AP Agri Dept indicates Rabi Pulses sowing down 4% from 8.45 lakh ha as on 28.01.2014 to 8.12 lakh ha as on 28.01.2015. As per Maharashtra Agri Dept, sowing till Feb 6 is down 18%. According to Gujarat Agriculture department, rabi chana acreage till Feb 2,2015 is down by 31% compared to the last year's area. The 2nd advance estimate by Rajasthan state agriculture department projected 12.24 lakh tons of chana this year, while it had touched 16.40 lakh tons last year. Chana acreage is lagging by 22% there. As per the data, sowing area has covered 14.9 lakh ha in the state so far, while it was recorded 19.23 lakh ha last year. 

Wheat New Crop Arrived in Jamnagar region of Gujarat

Wheat New Crop Arrived in Jamnagar region of Gujarat

New wheat crop is arriving in Jamnagar region of Gujarat .Common grade variety is in the range of Rs1625-1650/ quintal and Tukda variety in the range of Rs 1675-1700/quintal. However, arrival is low which is around 300-400 bags. Overall crop condition in the region is good and farmers are expecting greater yield of wheat this year as compare to last year.