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Friday, 18 May 2018

EUR/NZD breaks below 20-dma, on track to test 50-dma at 1.70, stay short




  • EUR/NZD extends slump below 20-DMA, on track to test 50-DMA at 1.70.
     
  • The pair is trading in a rising channel pattern and is extending downside after rejection at channel top.
     
  • The pair has formed a 'Shooting Star' at highs and we see scope for further weakness. Bears now target 50-DMA at 1.70.
     
  • Technical indicators are turning bearish and violation at 50-DMA will see further weakness.
     
  • Stochs are showing a rollover from overbought levels and RSI has turned lower from near overbought levels.
     
  • Break below 50-DMA will take the pair lower till next major support at 110-EMA at 1.6925 ahead of channel base at 1.6740.
     
  • On the flipside, retrace above 5-DMA will see test of channel top at 1.7285. Break out at channel top negates bearish bias.
Support levels - 1.70 (50-DMA), 1.6925 (110-EMA), 1.6813 (Mar 13 low)

Resistance levels - 1.7164 (5-DMA), 1.72, 1.7285 (channel top)


USD/CHF downside capped by 20 –day ma, good to sell on rallies




  • Major resistance – 1.0060
     
  • USDCHF has shown a minor decline till 0.99575 and started to recover from that level. The pair almost formed almost a double top at 1.00560 and started to consolidate within narrow range. Any convincing break below 0.9945 (20- day MA) confirms minor weakness and a dip till 0.9900 is possible.
     
  • The pair’s further bullish continuation can be seen only above 1.0060 level. Any break above 1.0060 will take the pair to next level till 1.010/1.0170 level. The safe haven such as yen has been declining sharply  
  • In this week the pair jumped till 1.00415 and started to decline from that level. So intraday trend is still weak and any convincing close below 1.000 confirms minor bearishness.
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0020-25 with SL around 1.0060 for the TP of 0.9905.

EUR/USD daily outlook




  • EUR/USD is consolidating in narrow range and trading slightly weak 25 pips above 2018 low. The pair pared some of its gains in European session. The pair weakness was mainly due to rising US 10 year bond yield. The yields hits fresh 7 year high at 3.10% yesterday. The leaders of Italy’s two political party M5S and League agreed to form a government. So no threat for Euro. It is currently trading around 1.17862.
     
  • The number of new people filing for U.S jobless benefits increased more than expected. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 222K
    compared to forecast of 215k.
     
  • On the higher side, near term major intraday resistance is around 1.1850 (hourly Kijun-Sen) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.1875 (200- H MA)/1.19215 (23.6% fibo)/1.1950. Short term bearish invalidation only above 1.2020 (200- day MA).
     
  • The near term support is at 1.1750 and any convincing break below will drag the pair to next level till 1.1715/1.1660.

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