Soybean prices may extend fall for a fifth-straight trading week on expectation of higher supply in domestic and international market and on declining demand for soymeal in export market, said analysts.
"Soybean prices may fall on higher supply in domestic and from United States and on weak demand for soymeal," said Ajay Kumar Kedia an analyst with Kedia Commodities.
Prices of the bean will be under pressure on oversupply woes following robust sowing data, said analysts.
With the revival of monsoon during the second half of this month the overall sowing and crop conditions are comfortable in the country though deficient rainfall in some parts of the country is a concern.
Kharif crop sowing stood at 76.48 million hectare until July 31, up 9% on year due to timely onset of monsoon and excess rains in June.
Soybean area coverage during last week is higher by 1.07 million hectare to 10.63 million hectare compared to 9.56 million hectare in corresponding period of kharif 2014.
Prices of the bean will also under pressure on expectation of higher supply from United States after the United States department of agriculture (USDA) rose 2015-16 United States soybean production forecast in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report.
The USDA hiked US, the world's biggest bean grower, 2015-16 production estimates to 105.7 million tons compared to 104.8 in the previous month estimates and 108 million tons a year ago.
Prices of the bean will also be down on weak demand for the Indian soymeal in export market, said analysts.
India soymeal exports in the month of June dropped 20.43% from a year earlier on higher prices of the soybean in the local market, data released from Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed today.
Soybean oilmeal exports dropped to 2,098 tons in June compared to 2,637 tons for the corresponding period a year earlier, data from SEA of India showed.
Soybean for August delivery traded in Rs 3,222-3,317 per 100 kilogram range in the past five trading sessions. Soybean for August delivery is expected to trade in Rs 3,060-3,380 per 100 kilograms on the National Commodity & Derivative Exchange next week.
Crude palm oil may trade flat next week on on subdued demand for the oil in export market following weak Malaysia palm oil export data and on short covering, said analysts.
Malaysia palm oil exports during July 1-20 dropped 15.52% compared to a month earlier on weak demand from China, India & Subcontinent and European Union.
Malaysia palm oil exports slipped to 907,574 tons during July 1-20 compared to 1.07 million tons for the same period a month ago, Dow Jones reported citing data from Intertek, a private surveyor.
Prices of the palm oil will also be down on higher supply in domestic market following robust imports data, said analysts.
Crude palm oil imports climbed 11.54% to 571,495 tons in June compared to 512,358 tons in the same period a month ago, data release from the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India showed.
However, sharp fall in the crude plam oil prices will be cushioned by buying at lower level after prices plunged to near 3% in past two-trading weeks, said analysts.
Domestic palm oil for August delivery slumped nearly 3% and traded in range of Rs 433.8-416.4 per 10 kilograms on the MCX, on weak demand.
CPO for August delivery in the past five sessions traded in Rs 416.40-426.80 per 10 kilograms and may trade in Rs 412-434 per 10 kilograms range on the MCX in next week, said Harshal Mehta a techical analyst with Nirmal Bang.
Soyoil prices may also fell next week on oversupply woes following robust imports, said analysts.
Prices of the soyoil will be under pressure on oversupply woes following robust production data from Argentina, the world's third biggest soyoil producer, said analysts.
The country produced 3.6 million tons of soy oil in the first half of the year, 3.5% more than the same period last year, the ministry data showed.
India's soyoil imports jumped to 154,090 tons in June compared to 99,682 tons for the same period a year ago, data released by the SEA of India showed.
Soyoil traded in Rs 565-579.50 per 10 kilogram range in the past five trading sessions. Soyoil for August delivery is expected to trade in Rs 564-592 per 10 kilograms rang next week on the National Commodity & Derivative Exchange (NCDEX), said Mehta.
However, prices of the mustard seed, the main rabi crop, are expected to trade higher in supply worries and on improved China demand, said analysts.
According to latest USDA report, global rapeseed production is forecast to decline 3.5 million tons in 2015/16 as a slight decrease in area reduces total output to 68.1 million tons.
In Europe, Oil World has estimated the production of 22 million tons as compared to 24.1 million tons in 2014/15.
In domestic market prices of mustard seeds were also supported by lower supply after arrivals were low at 500,000 bags compared to 600,000 bags earlier.
Prices of rape seed will also be supported by hope of improvement in demand from China after the Chinese government lifts a ban on Indian rapeseed meal which was imposed three years ago on quality concerns, Reuters reported Wednesday citing China's quarantine authority.
Last month, both the countries have inked a sanitary protocol and agreed to ensure Indian meal meets Chinese standards, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ), China's quality watchdog, said in a statement.
RM seed for August traded in Rs 4,102-4,209 per 100 kilogram range for past five trading session. RM seed for August delivery may trade in Rs 4,140-4,280 per kilogram range next week, said Mehta.
