MUMBAI, AUG 4
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SPOT 1-YR FWD 1-YR FWD 1-MONTH FUTURES
PREMIUM ABSOLUTE
Last 63.9800-63.9900 6.97-7.02 4.38-4.40 64.2775-64.2800
Open 64.0900-64.1000 6.96-7.01 4.37-4.39 64.3875-64.3900
High 64.0900-64.1000 6.97-7.02 4.38-4.40 64.4125-64.4150
Low 63.9700-63.9800 6.96-7.01 4.37-4.39 64.2750-64.2775
(Rs)
Prev 64.0400-64.0500 6.98-7.03 4.40-4.42 64.3575-64.3600
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9:55//USD/INR falls on selling by exporters, likely corp inflows: Dealers
Dollar/rupee fell during early morning trade Monday on selling by exporters ahead of RBI policy and on likely corporate inflows, dealers said.
"Exporters find the current level good to offload a part of their earning as they would like to dodge volatility anticipated after RBI policy meet," a dealer with a private bank said. "There were also some corporate inflows."
Reserve Bank of India will release its third Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Review statement at 11AM today.
The central bank is widely expected to keep repo rate unchanged at 7.25% but inflation outlook is expected to be dovish on back of improving monsoon so far this year amid easing in Brent crude oil prices.
Crude fell sharply Monday after oversupply and sluggish demand from its major consumers like China. Brent fell below $50 per barrel during overnight trade.
Dollar/rupee traded at Rs 63.98/$1 compared to open at Rs 64.09/$1 and Rs 64.04/$1 prev close.
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9:10AM//USD/INR opens up on dlr strength after weak China PMI; RBI policy eyed
Dollar/rupee opened up Tuesday tracking the strength of dollar in the global market on increases safe-have bets following weak Chinese manufacturing PMI and rout in commodities, dealers said.
Dealers also said investors would be closely watching the Reserve Bank of India's guidance on inflation and growth outlook at the third Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Review due at 11AM today.
"Weak Chinese economic data has increased safe have demand for dollar. While rout in commodities too supported demand for dollar as commodity linked currencies fell sharply," said a dealer with a private sector bank.
China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0 in July, below market expectation and reaching a 5-month low. cr The decline in headline PMI was driven mainly by a notable deterioration in new orders and production raising concerns about the health of the world's second largest economy.
Meanwhile, the imports fell to 47.8 together with a decline in new export orders reflecting weak demand conditions both at home and abroad.
Adding to this the sharp fall in oil prices in the overnight market has lead to fall of commodity linked currencies like Russian rouble, Canadian dollar, Kiwi dollar, Malaysian ringgit and Norwegian krone.
The dollar index, which tracks the strength of the greenback against six major currencies, traded at 97.55 Tuesday during early Asian trades compared with 97.24 at close in New York time.
Dealers also said that some investors have ignored the weak ISM manufacturing data, on expectation Friday's US job data may surprise on the upper side of estimate building a case for the US Federal Reserve to hike rates as early as September.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index showed a slight deceleration in July, after the index grew at its fastest rate in five months in June. The index came in at 52.7 in July, down from 53.5 in the prior month. Market consensus was for a reading of 53.7.
The early report comes at the beginning of a busy week of economic data that culminates with Friday's non-farm payrolls report for July.
Market consensus for Friday's jobs data is expected to show the US economy created 225,000 new jobs in July. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.3%.
Dollar/rupee opened at Rs 64.09/$1 Tuesday compared with previous close of Rs 64.04/$1.
Meanwhile, there is also expected to be some caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of India monetary policy meeting due tomorrow, wherein it is widely expected for the central bank to maintain status quo, a of 11 economists showed.
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8:55AM//USD/INR seen up tracking strong dlr, fear of upbeat US NFP data
Dollar/rupee may open up Tuesday tracking dollar strength in the global market mainly due to rout in commodity related currencies following sharp fall in crude oil prices amid growing expectation that US non-farm payroll data due on Friday may beat market estimte building a case for Fed to hike rates in September, dealers said.
Dealers also said investors would be closely watching the Reserve Bank of India's guidance on inflation and growth outlook at the third Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Review due at 11AM today.
"Dollar is strong mainly due to rout in commodity related currencies and this is getting reflected on dollar/rupee. We may see a gap up opening for dollar/rupee today," said a dealer with private sector bank.
Dollar/rupee may open around Rs 63.10-63.15/$1 Tuesday compared with Rs 63.04/$1 previous close, he added.
Dealers also said that investors have ignored the weak ISM manufacturing data, on expectation Friday's US job data may surprise on the upper side of estimate building a case for the US Federal Reserve to hike rates as early as September.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index showed a slight deceleration in July, after the index grew at its fastest rate in five months in June. The index came in at 52.7 in July, down from 53.5 in the prior month. Market consensus was for a reading of 53.7.
The early report comes at the beginning of a busy week of economic data that culminates with Friday's non-farm payrolls report for July.
Market consensus for Friday's jobs data is expected to show the US economy created 225,000 new jobs in July. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.3%.
The July jobs report will likely receive additional scrutiny because the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee, in its latest policy statement, said it would lift the Fed-funds rate when it has seen "some further improvement in the labor market" - adding the word "some" to a statement that has been present in past reports.
Economists interpreted the addition to mean that labor market growth has been strong enough to justify raising the Fed-funds rate, the Fed's benchmark interest rate, in September -- what would be the first increase to the Fed --funds rate since 2006.
A strong report could be the last piece of data the Fed needs to authorize a September hike, which would in turn send the dollar higher.
Dollar/rupee in the non-deliverable forwards market maturing in one month, traded at Rs 64.50/$1 compared to previous close of Rs 64.30/$1 and onshore spot previous close of Rs 64.04/$1.
The dollar index, which tracks the strength of the greenback against six major currencies, traded at 97.54 Tuesday during early Asian trades compared with 97.24 at close in New York time.
Meanwhile, there is also expected to be some caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of India monetary policy meeting due tomorrow, wherein it is widely expected for the central bank to maintain status quo, a of 11 economists showed.
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8:45AM//USD/INR NDF, Dlr index up on expectation of upbeat US job data on Fri
Dollar/rupee in the inter-bank offshore market and the dollar index rose Tuesday, ignoring weak ISM manufacturing data, on expectation Friday's US job data may surprise on the upper side of estimate building a case for the US Federal Reserve to hike rates as early as September.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index showed a slight deceleration in July, after the index grew at its fastest rate in five months in June. The index came in at 52.7 in July, down from 53.5 in the prior month. Market consensus was for a reading of 53.7.
The early report comes at the beginning of a busy week of economic data that culminates with Friday's non-farm payrolls report for July.
Market consensus for Friday's jobs data is expected to show the US economy created 225,000 new jobs in July. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.3%.
The July jobs report will likely receive additional scrutiny because the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee, in its latest policy statement, said it would lift the Fed-funds rate when it has seen "some further improvement in the labor market" - adding the word "some" to a statement that has been present in past reports.
Economists interpreted the addition to mean that labor market growth has been strong enough to justify raising the Fed-funds rate, the Fed's benchmark interest rate, in September -- what would be the first increase to the Fed --funds rate since 2006.
A strong report could be the last piece of data the Fed needs to authorize a September hike, which would in turn send the dollar higher.
Dollar/rupee in the non-deliverable forwards market maturing in one month, traded at Rs 64.50/$1 compared to previous close of Rs 64.30/$1 and onshore spot previous close of Rs 64.04/$1.
The dollar index, which tracks the strength of the greenback against six major currencies, traded at 97.55 Tuesday during early Asian trades compared with 97.24 at close in New York time.
