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Friday, 26 July 2013

buy crude oil hold for target 6290/6320

Crude edges lower on global growth concerns, U.S. data support

U.S. crude oil prices moved lower on Friday amid lingering concerns that the Chinese and U.S. economies continue to battle headwinds, though better-than-expected consumer sentiment in the U.S. data curbed losses.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in September traded at USD104.50 a barrel during U.S. morning trade, down 0.97%.

The September contract settled up 0.09%, at USD105.49 a barrel on Thursday.

Earlier this week, a preliminary reading of China's HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7 in July from a final reading of 48.2 last month. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 48.6. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction, which continued to dampen spirits on Friday, as China is the world's second-largest consumer of oil.

Meanwhile in the U.S., the Labor Department said Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week increased by 7,000 to 343,000 compared with expectations for a gain of 4,000 to 340,000, which dampened spirits somewhat though more upbeat consumer sentiment data provided some support.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose more than expected in July, hitting 85.1 from 83.9 in June.

Analysts had expected the index to rise to 84.0 this month.

The report also said that inflation expectations fell to 3.1% this month, from 3.3% in June.

The U.S. is the world's largest consumer of crude.

On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for September delivery were down 0.56% at USD107.05 a barrel, up USD2.55 from its U.S. counterpart.

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The dollar held at a five-week low and gold headed for its best month in over 1-1/2 years on Friday, after a report that the U.S. Federal Reserve will next week underline its intention to keep interest rates low for a long time.

Setting the dollar on its slippery slope was a Wall Street Journal report that the Fed may debate tweaking its forward guidance message to hammer home its message that it will not be raising rates any time soon.

Against a basket of currencies the greenback was down 0.3 percent at 81.697 with the softness also adding to the upward pressure on the euro, which was at a five-week high following better economic data this week.

A flurry of merger activity helped lift Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 share index 0.2 percent as the region's markets opened, while Europe's debt markets saw a largely quiet start to the day.

A 3 percent drop in Tokyo's Nikkei in Asia, however, left world stocks flat overall, capping a slow end to what has otherwise been their strongest month in almost two years.

With both the Fed and the European Central Bank meeting next week, plus some significant political events in Europe, BNP Paribas economist Ken Wattret said investors were likely to remain cautious.

"You look at the equity markets and the data in the U.S. and Europe has been good yet we are flat, so that probably tells you that we have had a good run and there is a bit of a pause going on," he said.

"And next week we have a lot going on so the market is in a bit of a wait-and-see mode."

Talk of the Fed reiterating its supportive stance next week also buoyed gold, seen by investors as a good hedge against potential inflation.

Spot gold edged up to $1,334.6 an ounce to add to the 10 jump it has seen this month, is its best run since January 2012.

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Quotes from Standard Chartered:

-President Xi's speech in Wuhan on 24 July signalled a reform orientation - he spoke of the need to dissolve entrenched interest groups (a possible reference to state-owned enterprises).

-This comes in the lead-up to the summer meetings at Beidaihe, where senior Party leaders attempt to reach consensus, followed by the all-important Third Plenum meeting in September/October, when a high-level economic reform blueprint will be released. Beijing's leadership is therefore still signalling a strong pro-reformist agenda to the Party.

-We expect China's economic policy to become more supportive of growth in Q3, as economic expansion has likely slowed towards the lower limit of the authorities' threshold. In a statement released by the State Council on 16 July, Premier Li explained how policy might be adjusted.

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Friday, 26 July 2013

buy crude oil hold for target 6290/6320

gold updates

gold up dtaes

crude oil tips

effective for base metals

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