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Friday, 26 July 2013

gold up dtaes

The dollar held at a five-week low and gold headed for its best month in over 1-1/2 years on Friday, after a report that the U.S. Federal Reserve will next week underline its intention to keep interest rates low for a long time.

Setting the dollar on its slippery slope was a Wall Street Journal report that the Fed may debate tweaking its forward guidance message to hammer home its message that it will not be raising rates any time soon.

Against a basket of currencies the greenback was down 0.3 percent at 81.697 with the softness also adding to the upward pressure on the euro, which was at a five-week high following better economic data this week.

A flurry of merger activity helped lift Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 share index 0.2 percent as the region's markets opened, while Europe's debt markets saw a largely quiet start to the day.

A 3 percent drop in Tokyo's Nikkei in Asia, however, left world stocks flat overall, capping a slow end to what has otherwise been their strongest month in almost two years.

With both the Fed and the European Central Bank meeting next week, plus some significant political events in Europe, BNP Paribas economist Ken Wattret said investors were likely to remain cautious.

"You look at the equity markets and the data in the U.S. and Europe has been good yet we are flat, so that probably tells you that we have had a good run and there is a bit of a pause going on," he said.

"And next week we have a lot going on so the market is in a bit of a wait-and-see mode."

Talk of the Fed reiterating its supportive stance next week also buoyed gold, seen by investors as a good hedge against potential inflation.

Spot gold edged up to $1,334.6 an ounce to add to the 10 jump it has seen this month, is its best run since January 2012.

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crude oil tips

sell crude oil@6215 target 6180/6150/6130


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effective for base metals

       Quotes from Standard Chartered:

-President Xi's speech in Wuhan on 24 July signalled a reform orientation - he spoke of the need to dissolve entrenched interest groups (a possible reference to state-owned enterprises).

-This comes in the lead-up to the summer meetings at Beidaihe, where senior Party leaders attempt to reach consensus, followed by the all-important Third Plenum meeting in September/October, when a high-level economic reform blueprint will be released. Beijing's leadership is therefore still signalling a strong pro-reformist agenda to the Party.

-We expect China's economic policy to become more supportive of growth in Q3, as economic expansion has likely slowed towards the lower limit of the authorities' threshold. In a statement released by the State Council on 16 July, Premier Li explained how policy might be adjusted.     


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EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:...

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:

- Jul 26 ECB Draghi 1-year anniversary of Bumblebee speach  - Jul 26 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week  - Jul 26 Italy CTZ auction (linker cancelled)  - Jul 26 Central Bank of Ireland publishes Q3 Quarterly Bulletin  - Jul 29 Italy sells 6-month T-bill for E8.5bln  - Jul 29 Italy ISTAT business survey  - Jul 30 Spain Q2 GDP data  - Jul 30 EMU July business climate/economic indicator   - Jul 30 Italy taps 5-year BTP, new 10-year BTP for up to E6.75bln  - Jul 30 Spain bond redemption for E14.95bln  - Jul 31 Eurozone flash HICP data  - Jul 31 Eurozone June unemployment data/Q2 unemployment data  - Jul 31 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.775bln  - Aug 01 Italy bond redemption for E25.16bln  - Aug 01 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference in Frankfurt
  

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gold levels

support:27350/27200/27020
resistance:27550/27700/27850


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Stock market updates

buy LT 3800-3810 stop loss 3780 target 3835/3900/3950