Crude oil may extend gain Tue on weak rupee, short-covering

  Crude oil prices are likely to extend gain for second straight trading day in opening session Tuesday on weakening of local currency against the dollar trimming the prospects of higher imports and as investors may cover short positions at lower levels, analysts said.

  "Rupee depreciation and low level buying will push the prices of crude," said Ajay Kumar Kedia, research analyst with Kedia Commodities.

  At 9:30AM rupee depreciated to Rs 64.19/$1 as compared to previous close of Rs 63.87/$1.

  Crude oil prices may also be supported on short-covering after prices fell to over four-month low, analysts said.

  Domestic crude oil prices fell by nearly 4% to Rs 2,824 per barrel in past three straight trading sessions (Aug 5-7), its lowest level since Mar 19 on weak demand from bulk consumers and oversupply woes in global markets.

  Meanwhile, China devalued its yuan currency following a run of poor economic data that underscored the market view that fundamentals are too weak to warrant higher oil prices.

  China devalued the yuan on Tuesday in what its central bank called a "one-off depreciation" of nearly 2% as its economy grows at its slowest pace in decades, guiding the currency to its lowest point in almost three years.

  Investors will keep a close watch on American Petroleum Institute (API) coming later today and Energy Information Association (EIA) inventories data which will be released on Wednesday.

  West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, for September delivery jumped 3.17% to $44.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Monday.

  Brent, European benchmark for September contract surged 4.19% to $51.02 per barrel, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange Monday.

  Crude oil for August delivery rose 1.27% to Rs 2,860 per barrel, at the closing of trades Monday, on Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX).

  Crude oil prices for August delivery are likely to find support at Rs 2,745 per barrel and resistance at Rs 2,943 per barrel today on Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX).

 

Base Metal Outlook: Copper seen flat Tue on demand hope, strong dollar

 

    Copper may open flat Tuesday on hope of demand hope from China and as strong dollar dents investors' purchasing power for buying dollar-denominated commodities, said analysts.

  "Base metals will be up on China demand hope while strong dollar will cap the prices at higher level," said Netra Deshpande an analyst with Emkay Global Financial Services.

  Prices of the industrial metals will be supported as investors hoping more stimulus measures from China's central bank following slew of weak economic data, said analysts.

  China's central bank cut the currency's reference rate by a record 1.9%, allowing depreciation to combat a slump in exports.

  China imports fell 8.1% in July compared to analysts' estimate of 8.1% fall and 6.1% de-growth for the same period a year earlier, data by the National Bureau Statistics of China showed.

  Exports in China also declined to 8.3% for the same period compared to 2.8% growth a year ago.

  China Jan-Jul copper, copper product imports fell 9.5% to 2.59 million tons on year, government data showed.

  China is the world's largest consumer of copper accounting for about 40% of total global demand and major consumer of other industrial metals.

  However, sharp fall in the red metal prices will be capped by strong dollar against other currencies, said analysts.

  At 9:50AM dollar index, which measures the strength of greenback against its six major trading partners, jumped 0.24% to 97.43.

  Red metal prices will also be under pressure on higher stockpiles of the metal on LME, indicating oversupply situation, said analysts.

  Copper stockpiles rose by 1,800 tons to 354,125 tons, LME data showed on Friday, its highest level since January 2014.    

   On Monday, copper for August delivery at the close of trades jumped 2.80% to Rs 338.95 per kilogram on the MCX.

  MCX copper prices are likely to find support at Rs 324.1 per kilograms while resistance is seen at Rs 348.1 per kilograms today.

  London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices may open at $ 5,263.50 per MT and find support at $4,964 MT and resistance at $5,581 per MT.

  MCX aluminium for July delivery at close of trades climbed 1.49% to Rs 101.85 per kilograms on the MCX.

   Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, global investment bank, trimmed aluminium prices estimates by 21% from 2016 through 2018 on oversupply woes, Bloomberg reported.

  The bank cuts its aluminium prices forecast to $1,525 ton in 2016, to $1,625 in 2017 and to $1,700 in 2018 from $1,925, $2,100 and $2,200 respectively previously estimated as it expects supply surplus of about 2.5 million tons to 3 million tons from 2016 to 2019.

  MCX aluminium prices are likely to find support at Rs 98.9 per kilograms while resistance is seen at Rs 104.1 per kilograms today.

 

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updates

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1

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11/08/2015

09:51:45

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1	buy hexa wear@282 sl 276 target 288/294/302	11/08/2015	09:49:08
2	BUY BIOCON 474 SL 465 TARGET 483/494/502	11/08/2015	09:44:17

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U.S. non-farm private employment rose less than expected in July, dampening optimism over the strength of the economy and fanning hopes that the Federal Reserve could delay raising interest rates until the very end of 2015. The monthly non-farm payroll was reduced to 215,000 in July, which was lower than the revised 231,000 in June. Unemployment rate was at 5.3 per cent, unchanged from June. The Institute for Supply Management services sector index rose to 60.3 in July, making it the highest reading recorded since August 2005. The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in June, as exports edged down 0.1% and imports rose 1.2%. In a report, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the U.S. trade deficit rose to a seasonally adjusted $43.84 billion in June from a deficit of $40.94 billion in May, whose figure was revised from a previously reported deficit of $40.7 billion. The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady and pledged to maintain its yearly monetary expansion at 80 trillion yen. Policymakers are upbeat about the ongoing growth and target an inflation of two per cent without additional monetary stimulus. U.S. natural gas storage rose less-than-expected last week. In a report, Energy Information Administration said that U.S. natural gas storage rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 32B, from 52B in the preceding week. The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in August and announced no change to its asset purchase facility program. The BOE said it was holding the benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, in a widely expected move. The rate has been held at that level since March 2009. U.S. crude oil inventories fell more-than-expected last week. In a report, Energy Information Administration said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -4.407M, from -4.203M in the preceding week. In a report, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending August 1 rose by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 270,000 from the previous week's total of 267,000. In a report, payroll processing firm ADP said non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 185,000 last month, below expectations for an increase of 215,000. The economy created 229,000 jobs in June, whose figure was downwardly revised from a previously reported increase of 237,000. Service sector activity in the U.S. grew at the fastest pace since August 2005 in July, boosting optimism over the health of the economy and supporting the case for a rate hike in September. In a report, the Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing manager's index rose 60.3 last month from 56.0 in June, above forecasts for a reading of 56.2. Markit reported that Germany's final manufacturing PMI was at 51.8, maintaining its recovery pace in July. In a separate report, industrial output dropped 1.4 per cent in June against revised 0.2 per cent gains in May. In another report by Markit, final service PMI in the Eurozone grew to 54 in July, matching forecast. Germany stayed on track at 53.8 reading in services, retaining its growth.

Week Ahead: ZINC (BUY) Moves by Chinese authorities to help shore up growth are expected to limit losses for industrial metals. China's central bank said during the past week that it was aiming to lower borrowing costs for firms and support key areas and vulnerable sectors. Economists expect the central bank to cut rates by another 25 basis points this year, and further reduce the amount of deposits banks must hold as reserves by another 100 basis points, according to a Reuters poll last month. The string of policy loosening steps should help the world's second-largest economy expand 7 percent this year, the poll showed, though the outlook for 2016 is expected to worsen slightly

Kota: Soybean in Physical Market Trading Higher

At Kota market , Soybean Plant is trading strong at Rs. 3250-3300 per quintal, higher by 2.33 per cent from previous trading day. Soybean Mandi is offered firm at Rs. 3100-3160 per quintal, higher by 0.32 per cent as compared to previous day. Total arrivals are at 15000 Bags, unchanged as compared to previous dayn#39;s arrival. Soybean in Kota Market (Prices in Rs. per quintal) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Kota Soybean Plant 3250-3300 +75 Kota Soybean Mandi 3100-3160 +10 nnbsp; Note: The above mentioned prices are in Rs. per quintal and arrivals are in Bags.

Soybean in Rajasthan Physical Market Trading Strong

At Bundi market , Soybean Plant is trading firm at Rs. 3150-3200 per quintal, up by 1.59 per cent from previous dayn#39;s price level. Soybean Mandi is offered firm at Rs. 3100-3150 per quintal, up by 1.61 per cent as against previous day. Estimated market supply was at 50 Bags, lower by 50 Bags from previous dayn#39;s arrivals. Soybean Plant at Baran market is quoted firm at Rs. 3200-3250 per quintal, up by 0.78 per cent from previous dayn#39;s price level. Soybean Mandi at Baran market is offered strong at Rs. 3000-3150 per quintal, higher by 1.61 per cent from previous trading day. Arrivals were reported at 1200 Bags, lower by 300 Bags from previous trading day. Soybean Plant at Bhawani market is trading high at Rs. 3200-3225 per quintal, up by 0.78 per cent as against previous day. Soybean Mandi at Bhawani market is quoted firm at Rs. 3150-3175 per quintal, higher by 0.79 per cent from previous dayn#39;s price level. Trade sources reported arrivals at 800 Bags, higher by 100 Bags as compared to previous day. Soybean in Rajasthan Market (Prices in Rs. per quintal) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Bundi Soybean Plant 3150-3200 +50 Bundi Soybean Mandi 3100-3150 +50 Baran Soybean Plant 3200-3250 +25 Baran Soybean Mandi 3000-3150 +50 Bhawani Soybean Plant 3200-3225 +25 Bhawani Soybean Mandi 3150-3175 +25 nnbsp;

Coriander Seed in Rajasthan Physical Market Closed Steady

At Baran market , Coriander Seed Eagle finished at Rs. 9375 per quintal, unchanged as compared to previous close. Coriander Seed Badami ended at Rs. 8875 per quintal, steady against previous close. Total arrivals are at 1400 quintals, lower by 100 quintals from previous dayn#39;s arrivals. Coriander Seed Eagle at Bhawani market ended at Rs. 8700 per quintal, unchanged as compared to previous close. Coriander Seed Badami at Bhawani market ended at Rs. 8500 per quintal, unchanged as compared to previous close. Arrivals were reported at 500 quintals, steady as against previous dayn#39;s arrival. Coriander Seed Scooter at Bhawani market finished at Rs. 9200 per quintal, unchanged from previous close. nnbsp; nnbsp; Coriander Seed in Rajasthan Market (Prices in Rs. per quintal) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Baran Coriander Seed Eagle 9375 0 Baran Coriander Seed Badami 8875 0 Bhawani Coriander Seed Eagle 8700 0 Bhawani Coriander Seed Badami 8500 0 Bhawani Coriander Seed Scooter 9200 0 nnbsp;