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India Jul CPI seen at 4%, RBI rate cut likely in Sep: BofAML

 

: India's retail inflation will likely fall to 4% in July, sharply lower than the Reserve Bank of India's target of 6% while industrial output will continue to remain weak, paving the way for a repo rate cut in September, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Friday.

  A better than expected monsoon, lower oil prices have resulted in easing consumer, wholesale and agricultural inflation with the central bank likely to cut its lending rate by 25 basis points next month, Bank of America said.

   India's retail inflation quickened to 5.4% in June forcing the Reserve Bank to pause its rate cut cycle.

  Agflation is expected to be well under control while wholesale deflation is expected to further worsen to 2.9%, Bank of America estimates.

   India's industrial output is expected to expand 3.5% in June higher than 2.7% in May largely on base effects underscoring a slow recovery, the bank estimates.

  BoFAML believes that further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India is contingent upon lending rate cut by banks, which will also aid in boosting the anemic growth in industrial output, especially since credit growth has slipped below 10% owing to slower expansion in reserve money.

  "We think time is running out for further lending rate cuts this fiscal," said Indranil Sen Gupta. "With capital flows drying up it is difficult for the RBI to pump in sufficient reserve money to soften lending rates."

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Steady Sentiment Witnessed in Warangal Red Chilli Physical Market

At Warangal market , Red Chilli Teja began at Rs. 9400-10000 per quintal, unchanged as compared to previous close. Arrivals were reported at 3000 bags, down by 1000 bags from previous trading day. Red Chilli Wonder Hot started at Rs. 9800-10500 per quintal, steady against previous close. Red Chilli 341 at Warangal market started the day at Rs. 9200-9800 per quintal, unchanged as compared to previous close. Red Chilli Denvor Delux at Warangal market opened at Rs. 9200-9800 per quintal, steady as against previous close. Red Chilli Fatki at Warangal market started at Rs. 6200-7400 per quintal, unchanged as compared to previous close. Red Chilli in Warangal Market (Prices in Rs. per quintal) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Warangal Red Chilli Teja 9400-10000 0 Warangal Red Chilli Wonder Hot 9800-10500 0 Warangal Red Chilli 341 9200-9800 0 Warangal Red Chilli Denvor Delux 9200-9800 0 Warangal Red Chilli Fatki 6200-7400 0 nnbsp;

Turmeric Physical Market in Warangal Trading with Steady Sentiment

At Warangal market , Turmeric Finger is trading at Rs. 7100-7200 per quintal, steady as against previous close. Traders reported arrivals at 150 bags, steady as against previous dayn#39;s arrival. Turmeric Rounds is offered at Rs. 7100-7200 per quintal, steady against previous close. steady as against previous dayn#39;s arrival. Turmeric in Warangal Market (Prices in Rs. per quintal) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Warangal Turmeric Finger 7100-7200 0 Warangal Turmeric Rounds 7100-7200 0 nnbsp; Note: The above mentioned prices are in Rs. per quintal and arrivals are in bags.

Soybean in Physical Market Trading Lower in Indore

At Indore market , Soybean Plant is trading lower at Rs. 3150-3200 per quintal, down by 0.78 per cent from previous trading day. Soybean Mandi is offered weak at Rs. 3070-3120 per quintal, lower by 0.95 per cent from previous price level. Estimated market supply was at 55000 Bags, higher by 20000 Bags as against previous day. Soybean in Indore Market (Prices in Rs. per quintal) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Indore Soybean Plant 3150-3200 -25 Indore Soybean Mandi 3070-3120 -30 nnbsp; Note: The above mentioned prices are in Rs. per quintal and arrivals are in Bags.

Chandausi Mentha Oil Physical Market Trading

At Chandausi market , Mentha Oil is trading lower at Rs. 950 per Kg, lower by 0.52 per cent from previous dayn#39;s price level. Mentha DMO is offered lower at Rs. 860 per Kg, lower by 0.58 per cent as compared to previous day. Mentha Flakes at Chandausi market is quoted high at Rs. 1055 per Kg, higher by 0.48 per cent from previous day. Mentha Crystal at Chandausi market is offered at Rs. 1085 per Kg, unchanged as compared to previous close. nnbsp; Mentha Oil in Chandausi Market (Prices in Rs. per Kg) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Chandausi Mentha Oil 950 -5 Chandausi Mentha DMO 860 -5 Chandausi Mentha Flakes 1055 +5 Chandausi Mentha Crystal 1085 0 nnbsp;

Cardamom Trading Weak in Kerala Physical Market

At Kochi market , Cardamom Loose(Max. Price) is trading weak at Rs. 980 per kg, lower by 2.97 per cent as against previous day. Total arrivals are at 55893 kgs, up by 1737 kgs from previous trading day. Cardamom Loose(Avg. Price) is offered lower at Rs. 634 per kg, lower by 2.46 per cent from previous price level. unchanged as compared to previous dayn#39;s arrival. Cardamom in Kerala Market (Prices in Rs. per kg) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Kochi Cardamom Loose(Max. Price) 980 -30 Kochi Cardamom Loose(Avg. Price) 634 -16 nnbsp; Note: The above mentioned prices are in Rs. per kg and arrivals are in kgs.

Groundnut Cake Trading Weak in Gujarat Physical Market

At Gondal market , Groundnut Cake is trading weak at Rs. 26500 MT, lower by 1.85 per cent from previous dayn#39;s price level. Groundnut DOC 40% is offered weak at Rs. 23000 MT, down by 4.17 per cent as against previous day. Groundnut DOC 45% at Gondal market is quoted weak at Rs. 26000 MT, down by 3.7 per cent from previous day. Groundnut Cake in Gujarat Market (Prices in Rs. MT) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Gondal Groundnut Cake 26500 -500 Gondal Groundnut DOC 40% 23000 -1000 Gondal Groundnut DOC 45% 26000 -1000 nnbsp;

Mentha Oil in Sambhal Physical Market Trading Weak

At Sambhal market , Mentha Oil is trading weak at Rs. 1005 per Kg, lower by 0.5 per cent from previous trading day. Arrivals were reported at 100 Drums(1-drum=180kg), up by 50 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous trading day. Mentha DMO is offered lower at Rs. 710 per Kg, down by 0.7 per cent as compared to previous day. Mentha Flakes at Sambhal market is quoted lower at Rs. 1045 per Kg, lower by 0.19 per cent as against previous day. Mentha Crystal at Sambhal market is offered lower at Rs. 1085 per Kg, lower by 0.46 per cent from previous trading day. Mentha Oil in Sambhal Market (Prices in Rs. per Kg) Market Commodity/Variety Price Change Absolute Sambhal Mentha Oil 1005 -5 Sambhal Mentha DMO 710 -5 Sambhal Mentha Flakes 1045 -2 Sambhal Mentha Crystal 1085 -5 nnbsp;